Description
Insider trading is rife on Polymarket:
> Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets--defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less--on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.
>
> That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
It is absolutely insane that this is legal. We already know how insider betting warps sports. Insider betting warping politics--and military actions--is orders of magnitude worse.
> Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets--defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less--on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.
>
> That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
It is absolutely insane that this is legal. We already know how insider betting warps sports. Insider betting warping politics--and military actions--is orders of magnitude worse.
Basic Information
ID
SCHNEIER:D6CB50EA1409045C6A11C63B6EED4C25
Published
May 8, 2026 at 17:49